Can Green Card Holders Change the 2008 Election?

Univision, the nations largest Spanish-language broadcast network believes they can. They are using their influence with the millions of legal permanent residents to encourage them to become citizens. The ramifications could be huge, some believe even could effect the 2008 presidential election.

From the WSJ:

The citizenship drive, which is about to go national, could help turn Latinos into a key electoral constituency in several states. A larger bloc of new Latino voters would likely influence the immigration debate that has been dividing the country. In part because of this, Hispanic voters in recent elections have tended to cast ballots mostly for Democrats. For instance, in the 2006 congressional contest, Republican candidates who take a harder line on illegal immigrants than their rivals garnered only 31% of the Latino vote.
Stumble It!

[digg=http://digg.com/politics/Can_Green_Card_Holders_Change_the_2008_Election/blog]

Apart from immigration, Hispanics are animated by education and employment policies, so their greater participation could shape candidates’ stances on those issues as well. Given past voting patterns, “a surge in naturalizations will benefit Democrats at least twice as much as Republicans,” said Roberto Suro, director of the Pew Hispanic Center, a nonpartisan research organization. The impact could be biggest in Southwestern states such as Arizona, but it could reach as far as Florida, which recently has experienced a large influx of non-Cuban Hispanic immigrants.

It is unusual for a mainstream media company to mount a public-service effort that would seem to benefit such a specific interest group. But Univision is so closely allied with its Spanish-speaking audience that such a campaign is considered core to its mission. “We feel that empowering our audience is good for Hispanics and the country,” said Univision President Ray Rodriguez. “It’s part of our relationship with viewers.”

“This is a totally nonpartisan effort,” he adds.

If the citizenship campaign culminates in two million to three million new Hispanic voters, “that could turn the tide in several states,” including Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, says Sergio Bendixen, a pollster who specializes in ethnic markets. In 2004, Republicans won by a small margin in those states.

The result is the largest campaign ever to convert eligible Hispanics into citizens and, ultimately, voters. “This is about increasing the participation of Latino immigrants in U.S. civic life,” says Marcelo Gaete, a senior director of Naleo. “They can change the political landscape.”

“We’re not illegal, but we have family members who are,” said Marina Gonzalez, who has been a legal permanent resident for 20 years. Once she gets her citizenship, Mrs. Gonzalez said, she plans to vote: “We want to have a say in these matters.”

Even legal residents feel vulnerable these days. “You never know what law could change and make it harder for us to stay here,” said Mayolo Lucas, a 47-year-old Mexican vegetable seller and a green-card holder for 15 years, who had been waiting four hours for help with his application.